Both technologies that I deal with those days - grids and IPv6 are not young (more than ten years), have clear benefit for the users, are supported and implemented by the major manufactures in that field, but still failed to be adopted in large scale. I wonder what makes a technology "ready to be adopted" and how it can be identified.
There are several aspects of readiness. The first one would be "How it can be done (based on existing tools) ?".
The DoD published the Technology Readiness Assessment (TRA) Deskbook that deals with technology maturity estimation based on analytical measurements of applying those technologies. So if the different components that are needed exist or can be developed with existing technology, that makes it ready. It is probably correct from the technical point of view even though not all connections and dependencies between components can be identified.
Next one would probably be the rentability of a technology. Its actual cost vs. profit it can give. If it costs more than its revenue - no one would implement it, but if it offers significant benefit compared to the cost, then implementing it would contribute to whom adopts the technology. Since the cost and revenue measurements are not global terms (it can give different revenue for different people) same technology might be good for one and not good enough for others.
But I was looking for something else that I might call it "coolness" or the trendiness of a technology. When a technology become trendy ? It is clear that first a technology has to exist, which means it passed the initial vision, brainstorming, planning, etc. stages. Then it has to have some prototype and from this stage it can become a trend if it has a specific property. I am not sure if there is one property or several properties and weather the properties have to exist all together or a sub-set of them are enough.
Assuming there are some properties that are needed, how can a good technology can be given those properties in order to make it happen. What comes first the technology worthiness or the properties that makes it worthy?
On the other hand are there technologies that can not become trendy ? It is clear to me that it is not about being useful, not about being cheap and not about being user friendly it is about something else that I try to find out.
What is that property and how can it be identified ?
Thursday, February 22, 2007
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1 comment:
Hello Eddie. Nice post..
Since we all know "shelf-ware" (unimplemented technology), this is quite interesting.
One angle that I'd add to that is the philosophy of "if it ain't broken, don't fix it". The implementation readiness is a subjective "feeling" driven from many parameters (you can still see businesses running DOS, and of cause Unix).
A fine example was the "bug 2000"... not such a bright technology, yet believed to save the world (not now... but back at 1999 23:59:59).
Bye,
Ariel
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